Tagged: projections

Buy,Sell,Trade what I have learned so far in the 2014 Fantasy Football year

What have I learned so far in this 2014 fantasy football season..

1. Nick Foles -Man heres a guy I was so high on and thus far this season he has been fools gold. One of the worst 1st half QB in fantasy football and has posted only 1 20+ pts game out of the last 4 weeks and the DUD in week 4 with only 3..no really 3! fantasy pts. and next week vs STL who has one of the best front 4 in the league.For some reason his trade value is still sky high  and with tough matchups in week 5 vs STL , 8vs AZ  I think its time to see what the open market might bring for him.

2.Leveon Bell -Once he started to drop to round 3 in most leagues,I tweeted (@Dennis77Farrell) jump on him in the 2nd round..Now he looks like he could end the year as a top 3 RB this season and also has 19 Rec on the season.The price might be to high to trade for him but I would not think twice in trading McCoy or Charles for him if you can find a sucker.

3. CJ Spiller- Here is a RB with no touchdowns and no respect among but he is a great buy low player, healthy and getting 10+touches a game  and could easily heat up and net you 15-17 touches a game.

4. Matt Asiata- Sell high now!!! he value will never be any higher then it is now (Week 4-20/78/3) Sure he will have a good game vs GB in week 5 but after that he plays Det who has the 6th best Def vs RB Buf who has the 7th best Def vs RB and in week 9 Washington who as of right now the 2nd best D vs RB.  Now you wont get a stud in return but dont worry use him as a peace to push a trade for a stud.

5.Eddie Lacy- Buy now, the whole Packers Offense has looked sluggish but in week 4 the passing game came alive so its only a matter of time before Lacy hit his stride and becomes a fantasy stud.

6. Jeremy Hill- If you act now you can catch someone in your league sleeping and steal Hill from them. Being drafted as a backup he has worked his way into your Flex spot with 19 pts in the last two games his roll in the Offense will only keep growing. Unlike Asiata Hill is the real deal.

 

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Fantasy Football ADP draft day steals

So it that time of year where everyone is looking for draft day steals.

We all enjoyed late round production in 2013 from guys like Alshon Jeffery and Knowshon. This year I see a lot of names who are not getting any love in mock drafts some rookies and some are fantasy football vet who once have helped or even lead your team to a championship .

Here is a list of guys with low ADP (Avg Draft Position) that could become draft day steals. (Round they are being drafted. pick in said round)

DeAngelo Williams (9.12)/Jonathan Stewart(12.7)

I’m leaning toward Stewart more here all signs point to Stewart being healthy and with coach speak saying they would be happy if the Wideouts would  get 12-20 rec per-game. That tells me the Offense might be more run heavy.question marks around Cam Newton and his band of misfit Wide Revisers maybe just maybe D-Will and J-Stew might payoff.

Miles Austin (14.5)

Without Josh Gordon and if Austin can stay on the field I think he has the chance to see the Endzone at least 7-8 times. Before this I had him at 6 TD.as far as Rec before the Gordon debacle I projected Miles Austin at 65 Rec now I’ll give him a bump to 72-75.

Odell Beckham Jr (13.10)

Look OBJ has a real opportunity to be the 3rd WR on this team and truly think he could sidestep Rueben Randel as the number two guy on this team. my projection- 66Rec 760Yd 7TD

Tre Mason (11.7)

Realistically Mason is a great handcuff this season but what if we tried to put the clues together..One of the best RB in college football last season,The Rams already set with Zac Stacy drafts Mason with a 3rd round pick. I would not be shocked if Mason has 120 ATT 440 Yd and 4TD.

Steve Smith (12.10)

Last season Smith netted 97 fantasy points in standard leagues this season I think you see a bit of a bump upward in his stats I’m going to guess about 60-67Rec and 7TD,Add that to the fact he is being drafted late in the 12th and early in the 13th round Steve Smith is a draft day steal.

Heres a list of other names you keep a eye out on..

DeAndre Hopkins (11.3)

Carlos Hyde (11.8)

Jerrett Boykin (11.11)

David Wilson (12.4)

Markus Wheaton (13.4)

Check out updates on my twitter account @Dennis77Farrell

If you are a fan of fantasy football podcast check out

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Podcast : Fantasy Football talking Rankings and ADP

The New F Word podcast is up, This week I talk Fantasy Football- I take a early look at this years ADP (Avg Draft Position) match that vs my rankings (found on this blog). Feel free to leave a question below.

Website ;http://www.thefantasychronicles.com/  (Click The F Word Podcast)

Itunes : https://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/the-f-word/id847969979?mt=2

 

Fantasy Baseball updates

Ok guys this week I added a few guys you might want to trade as well.
Nelson Cruz 100%
Season- .314 20HR 52RBI 39Runs
I had Nelson going .270ish and 25HR
Whelp he had blown that out of the water but the downside is the Hammy issues over the last few years. I think we see a DL stint with him maybe two .

George Springer 100%
Season- .259 24Runs 10HR 29RBI
After that 7HR in 7 games everyone went nuts and picked him up .
If you own him you might want to move Springer . His value will never be higher then it is now if your lucky he will end the year with 17-20HR 60RBI and .263

Ben Revere 65%
Season .289 15SB 24-runs
65% kinda high for this list but if he is on your waver wire you must add him .
Right now Revere is killing it with a 8game hit streak with 3-SB and 13hits.

Josh Willingham 21%
Coming off of the DL on 5/25 Josh has been on fire in that 8 game span going .310(8hits) 8 RBI and 7Runs with 3HR

Roenis Elias 4% pitcher season- 65K 3.53ERA WHip 1.23
The ER won’t help you, Elias has been up and down all year. One day going 6IP 5ER and 5K the next start going 9IP 0ER and 8K. Good luck

Nathan Evoaldi 52%
His ownership has been a roller coaster going 61K 3.24ERA and 1.17 whip on the season . The bright side is over the last 3 games he has 20IP 5ER and 11K

Alright guys I’ll have new fantasy football content out this week.
Until then I need your help guys.
Any time I have ever asked for help you guys stepped up big time!!!

So I started a new website and it’s about 85% done.
Please head over check it out and add it to your favorites most of all please please tell a friend.

http://www.thefantasychronicles.com

Updated: 2014 #FantasyFootball RB top 25

So while I was working on my top 25 RB rankings  for the 2014 season I got to thinking…How right are we(Industry Insiders)

and it turns out not really.. This is data from a site we all LOVE.. So much so fans have a blind devotion to the ranks and the talent. On draft day dont be a slave to the rankings.

Over the last 3 years between 6-7 RB that have been pre-ranked in the top 15 at the start of the year was NOT in the top 15 when the smoke settled . Here a look at the top 15 for the 2011,2012 and 2013 season (Not Ranked in the top 15)

2011 RB    Pts  (Pre-Ranked)

1.Ray Rice 300pts (5th)

2.LeSean McCoy 282pts (6th)

3.MJD 264pts (7th)

4.Arian Foster 256pts (4th)

5.Marshawn Lynch 219pts (Not Ranked)

6.Michael Turner 216pts (9th)

7.Ryan Mathews 190pts (Not Ranked)

8.Michael Bush 187pts (Not Ranked)

9.Darren Sproles 185pts (Not Ranked)

10.Steven Jackson 183pts (11th)

11.Frank Gore 180pts (10th)

12.Reggie Bush 180pts (Not Ranked)

13.Adrian Peterson 178pts (1st)

14.Fred Jackson 172pts (Not Ranked)

15.Matt Forte 170pts (14th)

—-2012 RB Pts (Pre-Rank)—-
1.Adrian Peterson 307pts (10th)
2.Doug Martin 263pts (Not Ranked)
3.Arian Foster 262pts (1st)
4. Marshwn Lynch 247pts (6th)
5.Alferd Morris 241pts (Not Ranked)
6.Ray Rice 222pts (2nd)
7.CJ Spiller 212pts (Not Ranked)
8.Jamaal Charles 205pts (9th)
9.Trent Richerson 204pts (14)
10.Frank Gore 203pts (Not Ranked)
11.Steven Ridley 199pts (Not Ranked)
12.Matt Forte 177pts (7th)
13.Chris Johnson 176pts (4th)
14.Reggie Bush 172pts (Not Ranked)
15.Shonn Greene 167pts (Not Ranked)

As you can tell its a crap shoot as to how they finish year by year.
Let take a look at the 2013 season before we get to my rankings .

—–2013 RB. Pts. (Pre-Rank)
1.Jamaal Charles 295pts (6th)
2.LeSean McCoy 262 (10th)
4.Marshawn Lynch 224pts (3rd)
5.Knowshon Moreno220pts (Not Ranked)
6.Eddie Lacy 198pts (Not Ranked)
7.Adrian Peterson 194pt (1st)
8. Chris Johnson 189pt (15th)
9.Demarco Murry 189pt (Not Ranked)
10.Fred Jackson 178pts(Not Ranked)
11.Ryan Mathews 175pts(Not Ranked)
12.Reggie Bush 174pts(Not Ranked)
13.Frank Gore 166pts (14th)
14.Alfred Morris 160pts (9th)
15.Leveon Bell 160pts (Not Ranked)

So my point is the top 15-25 has just as much value and chance to break the top 10 as guys being ranked in the top 10.
I will update my list as the days and the weeks leading up to camp so check back. (Are the ranking from two other sites)
—-2014 RB rankings—-
1.Jamaal Charles (1st,3rd)
2.Adrian Peterson(3rd,1st)
3.LeSean McCoy (2nd,2nd)
4.Matt Forte(6th,4th)
5.Marshawn Lynch (4th,5th)
6.Eddie Lacy (5th,6th)
7.Leveon Bell(8th.11th)
8.Zac Stacy (9th,9th)
9.Doug Martin (10th,7th)
10.Alfred Morris (14th,12th)
11.Montee Ball(7th,13th)
12.Arian Foster(13th,8th)
13.Giovani Bernard(11th,14th)
14.Reggie Bush (15th,15th)
15.Demarco Murry (12th,10th)
16.CJ Spiller (16th,18th)
17.Ryan Mathews (15th,17th)
18.Ben Tate (21st,16th)
19.Andre Ellington (17th,20th)
20.Trent Richarson (21st,32nd)
21.Reshad Jennings (25th,19th)
22.Shane Vereen (22nd,26th)
23.Bishop Sankey (24th,29th)
24.Knowshon Moreno (33rd,31st)
25.Joique Bell (23rd,27th)

So keep a eye on 16-25th I have a feeling one maybe two guys sneak into my top 15.
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